本文以安徽省为例,分析了地方政府财政投资的经济效应.首先,财政投资结构分析结果表明:财政投资以公共品和服务为主,对基础设施和公共管理投资比重较高;财政投资以内资企业为主,特别是国有企业和私营企业.其次,分行业面板模型分析结果表明:财政投资对产出存在显著抑制作用;财政投资规模对经济增长无显著影响.因而,推动安徽经济持续增长需要不断提高安徽居民收入,并且降低财政投资增速,从而更好的发挥企业在生产中的主体作用.
Taking Anhui province as an example, this paper analyzes economic effects of fiscal investment from local government. Firstly, results from analyzing structure of fiscal investment show that the major part of fiscal investment is supply of public goods and services, in particular infrastructure and social management; local government prefers domestic firms more, in special national and private enterprise. Further, results of panel model, based on industries, shows that: fiscal investment restrains production; scales of fiscal investment exert little impact on growth. It implies that increasing incomes, decelerating pubic investment, and deregulating production decision are potential approaches to spur persistent growth.