中文摘要：

基于北部湾海岸带2000-2013年MOD16蒸散发（ET）数据和植被类型数据，借助于Theil—Sen中值趋势分析、Mann—Kendall检验以及Hurst指数等数理统计方法对海岸带蒸散量的时空变化特征进行定量分析，并在此基础上对蒸散量的未来变化趋势进行预测。结果表明：时间尺度上，2000--2013年北部湾海岸带蒸散量呈波动增加趋势，增速为1．41mm／a，高于广西桂南地区，海岸东岸蒸散量增速快于全区，而丘陵地区和海岸西岸地区增速慢于全区。季节蒸散量由大到小排序为：夏季（111．88mm）、秋季（93．45mm）、春季（85．57mm）、冬季（47．98mm），分别占年内蒸散量的33．01％、27．58％、25．25％和14．16％；空间尺度上，蒸散量自东北一西南中心线呈现海岸带西岸年均蒸散量高于海岸带东岸，东南地带年均蒸散量达到全年最小值的态势，ET—sen趋势度介于-50．93～51．76mm／a，海岸带蒸散量在空间上呈现出减小的趋势；空间波动性上，海岸带蒸散量的变异系数较大，其值介于0．02～0．39。海岸带中部以及东南部蒸散量处于高波动状态，而海岸带西岸和西北部处于低波动状态，其中合浦县的南流江三角洲蒸散量的波动性最大；未来变化趋势上，海岸带蒸散量Hurst指数的范围为0．25—0．93，平均值为0．68，呈现单峰右偏分布，Hurst指数反持续序列（7．58％）小于持续性序列（92．42％），说明研究区ET未来变化呈持续性减小的趋势。

英文摘要：

Based on the MOD16 evapotranspiration （ET） data during the period of 2000--2013 and the vegetation type, the mathematical-statistics methods of Theil -Sen median trend, Mann -Kendall test and Hurst index were used to analyze the characteristics of temporal-spatial dynamic changes of ET and its future trend in Beibu Gulf coastal zone. The results showed regarding temporal variations, the annual ET of coastline in Beibu Gulf increased with a fluctuation rate of 1.41 mm/a in the study area from 2000 to 2013, and it was higher than that in the southern area of Guangxi. The trends of ET changing rate in east coast were faster than that of the whole region, while it was slower in the hilly areas and west coastal regions than that of the whole region. The order of increasing rate of seasonal ET was summer （ 111.88 mm） 〉 autumn （93.45 mm） 〉 spring （85.57 mm） 〉 winter （47.98 mm）, which accounted for 33.01%, 27.58%, 25.25% and 14. 16% of annual ET, respectively. Regarding spatial distribution, the spatial distribution of averaged annual ET in northeast-southwest centerline showed it was higher in the western coastal zone than that in the east, and the annual ET in southeast region reached minimum and the law of ET＇s Theil - Sen median trend was from - 50. 93 mm/a showed a decreasing trend in coastal zone. Regarding the was larger and its value was from 0. 02 ~ 0. 39. The ET in to 51.76 mm/a, the spatial distribution of ET volatility of ET, the variable coefficient of ET central and southeastern coastal zone presented a high volatility level, while the west and northwest of the coastal zone were in a low-volatility state, and the ET in Hepu County of Nanliu River Delta showed the maximum volatility. Regarding the future trend of ET, the Hurst index of ET was changed from 0. 25 to 0. 93, with a mean of 0. 68, presented the right unimodal distribution. And the anti-sustained sequence （7. 58% ） was smaller than sustained sequence （92. 42% ）, which indicated that the overall ET would take on