中文摘要：

以2000—2011年423景SPOT—VEGETATION逐旬NDVI数据为基础，采用MVC、标准差、线性趋势分析和HURST指数等数理统计方法对北部湾经济区植被覆被时空变化特征及未来趋势进行定量分析。结果表明，2000-2011年北部湾经济区NDVI值呈波动上升趋势，快于广西区年NDVI平均增长速率。NDVI均值存在着明显的分段特征，且转折点出现在2006年，2006年以前研究区植被覆盖呈现下降趋势，2006年以后呈现显著增加趋势。NDVI均值在空间上呈现出西北和西南植被覆被低、东南植被覆被高的态势，NDVI均值纬向分布呈现出北高南低，经向分布线性倾向率比较小，仅为0．5952／1N°。NDVI标准差的变幅较大，表现为波动小主要分布在NDVI均值的两个极端，波动较小与波动较大并存，波动较大分布比较零散的空间格局。NDVI的Hurst指数反持续（10．03％）〈持续性序列（89．97％），说明经济区植被的变化趋势处于持续性改善的趋势。

英文摘要：

By using the 10-day SPOT-VEGETATION NDVI data during the period of 2000-2011, this study applied a number of statistics methods, such as MVC, standard deviation, linear trend analysis and HURST index, to analyze the quantitative characteristics of the spatio-temporal changes of the vegetation coverage and its future trends in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone. The results indicated that the annual NDVI index increased with time and with fluctuations in the study area from 2000 to 2011, of which the regional NDVI increasing rate was larger than the average value in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The temporal variation of NDVI showed an obvious turning point in 2006, before when a decreasing trend existed and vice versa. The spatial distribution of vegetation coverage showed a trend with low values in the northwest and the southwest and with high values in the southeast. The zonal distribution pattern of NDVI showed high NDVI in the north and low NDVI in the south, while the linear trend rate in the meridional distribution was relatively small, only 0.5952 per one degree. The variation amplitude of the NDVI standard deviations was large, and its spatial distribution pattern presented that the minor fluctuations mainly distributed in the two extremes of the mean NDVI; the minor and major fluctuations coexisted; and the major fluctuations were very scattered. The Hurst index of NDVI for the region showed a dominant trend of the sustained sequence （89.97%）, indicating that the overall vegetation coverage will sustainably keep improving in the future.