以红水河流域1961—2011年9个气象站点的月平均气温、月平均最高气温、月平均最低气温为基础,运用气候倾向率、小波分析、Mann-Kendall突变检测法和反距离插值法对流域50年的极端气温变化进行时空定量分析。结果表明:1流域平均温度、极端高温和极端低温的气候倾向率呈上升趋势,平均气温和极端低温的气候倾向率均低于全国水平,而极端高温的气候倾向率高于全国水平。2流域极端高温的突变年为2002年和2009年,极端低温的突变年为1985年,平均温度突变年为1996年。3流域50年来极端高温存在着28年左右的震荡周期,极端低温在14—17年较大的时间尺度上经历了低—高—低—高的变化过程,中小尺度上6—8年的周期变化明显,而流域的平均温度存在27年左右的震荡周期。4流域极端高温变幅较大,总体上呈西北高、东南低的空间分布格局,极端低温呈“冷—热—冷—热”的空间分布格局,平均气温总体上呈典型的经向分布特征。
Based on the data of the monthly average temperature, the highest monthly average temperature and the lowest monthly average tem- perature from 9 meteorological stations during the period 1961 to 2011 in Red River Basin, the linear trend analysis, wavelet analysis, IDW, and Mann - Kendall method was used to analyze the spatial - temporal quantitative characteristics of extreme temperature changes in Red River in northwestern China. The results indicated: ①The climate tendency rates of average temperature, extreme high and extreme low temperatures were on the rise. The climate tendency rates of average temperature and extreme low temperatures were lower than the tendency of national level, while the climate tendency rate of extreme high temperature was higher than the national average level. ②The extreme high temperature mutations was the year of 2002 and 2009, extreme low temperature mutations was in1985, and the average temperature mutations was 1996. ③The main cycle of extreme high temperature was 28 years, in a larger time scales of 14 - 17 year, the cycle of extreme low temperature experienced the process of low, high, low, high, the year 6 - 8 cycle of medium and small scale was obvious. While the cycle of average temperature was 27 years. QThe extreme high temperature range was larger, the spatial distribution showed that it was high in the northwest, and low in the southeast. The spatial distribution of extreme low temperature showed a spatial pattern of “cold - hot- cold- hot”, while average temperature presented the typical characteristics of meridional distribution.