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中文摘要：
选取1961-2011年广西环北部湾地区12测站逐日降水数据,采用降水发生率和贡献率指标,分析不同历时和等级降水的时空变化规律,利用Mann-Kendall检验法探讨降水的变化趋势,结果如下：① 各历时降水发生率随降水历时增加大致呈指数形式递减,贡献率则先增加后减小;从引发洪涝灾害的角度分析,3-4 d历时降水造成洪涝灾害发生的可能性最大.各历时降水发生率与贡献率空间差异表现基本一致,均表现为1-2 d、≥10 d差异较大,3-9 d差异较小.② 降水发生率随着降水等级的增加而减小,贡献率则随着降水等级的增加而增大;空间差异主要表现在南部的北海、钦州、东兴所在区域的小雨和暴雨方面,即小雨发生率、贡献率偏低,暴雨发生率、贡献率偏高;其余各站差异较小.③ 各历时降水发生率与贡献率变化趋势表现基本一致,即1-2和≥6 d表现为下降,3-5 d表现为上升.小雨、大雨、暴雨发生率、贡献率在区域变化趋势上表现基本一致,即小雨表现为下降,大雨、暴雨表现为上升;而中雨发生率和贡献率分别表现为上升和下降.
英文摘要：
On basis of daily precipitation data from 12 rain-gauge stations over the Circum-Beibu-Gulf region of Guangxi from 1961 to 2011,the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of precipitation pattern were analyzed.The incidence rate and contribution rate of precipitation are defined and used to assess the spatial and temporal variation of precipitation pattern.And the Mann-Kendall test method is used to discuss the trend of precipitation pattern.The results show that： ① The incidence rate of precipitation events for different durations decreases exponentially with the increase of precipitation durations,while the corresponding contribution rate firstly increases and then decreases;As far as disaster is concerned,precipitation events for 3~4 d are most likely to trigger flood disaster.The spatial distribution of precipitation events for different durations has a similar variation trend such as 1~2 d and ≥10 d with great difference and 3~9 d with little difference.② The incidence rate for different grades decreases with the increase of precipitation grade,while the corresponding contribution rate is increasing;The incidence rate and the contribution rate of light rain events are lower in southern region （Bei hai,Qinzhou and Dongxing）,while torrential rain events are higher than other regions.③ Precipitation events for different durations throughout the region have a similar variation trend such as 1~2 d and ≥6 d showing a downward trend and 3~5 d showing an upward trend.Light,heavy and torrential rains throughout the region have a similar variation trend such as heavy and torrential rains with an upward trend and light rain with a downward trend;while the opposite trend is found for the incidence rate and the contribution rate of moderate rain events,showing upward and downward trends,respectively.
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