中文摘要：

水库汛限水位动态控制是面向洪水资源安全利用的水库实时防洪调度的主要方式之一,以碧流河水库2005年“8.8”实际洪水过程为例,根据水库汛限水位动态控制的新理念,研究实时防洪调度中考虑综合信息的模糊推理汛限水位动态控制方法,并与常规调度方法及实际调度过程进行比较,同时进行风险及效益分析。结果表明,模糊推理方法在不增加水库及上下游防护对象风险的前提下,能抬高汛限水位,增加水库蓄水;与“8.8”洪水实际调度过程取得效益基本相同,比常规调度方法能多蓄水0.37亿m3,可创造直接经济效益近600万元。

英文摘要：

Dynamic control of reservoir flood limited level is one of the real time flood control operation manners of reservoir. Based on the new idea of dynamic control of reservoir flood limit level, the fuzzy inference method for dynamic control is researched and applied to the 8.8-flood in 2005 in the Biliu River Basin. Compared with the traditional operation methods and the actual operations, the benefits and risks are analyzed in detail. The results indicated that fuzzy inference method for dynamic control can store more 0.37×108 m^3 water and obtain an economic benefit near to 6 million RMB Yuan than that of the traditional operation methods while no flood control risk is increased. The benefit of the fuzzy inference method is close to that of the actual operation process. The results can bring much fruits not only for Biliuhe Reservoir, but also for the water supply of Dalian city. And this research progress is help for alleviating the eonifliet between water demand and supply of Dalian.