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中文摘要：
基于汛限水位动态控制新理念，利用退水预报计算入库洪水，根据上下游面临时刻的工情、雨情、水情、灾情信息预测洪水预见期内的预蓄预泄能力；依托短期降雨预报，在同时保证大坝与下游防洪不成灾的前提下估算后续起调水位；在此基础上将实时预蓄预泄能力与后续起调水位相耦合，提出汛限水位实时动态控制模型。并对其可能产生风险进行分析。最后以于桥水库为例，对不同初始流量的退水阶段与面临未来24h降雨预报不同量级时的汛限水位动态控制期望值及其风险进行计算，结果表明此模型可在一定风险范围内增加水库汛末蓄水机率，为指导水库实时调度提供理论依据。
英文摘要：
Based on the new idea of the dynamic control of the limited water level of reservoirs in flood period, a real-time dynamic control model is proposed on the basis of the ability of pre-impound and pre-release, the limited water level of reservoir in next flood period is built. The pre-impound and pre-release ability of reservoir is estimated by flood recession forecast with considering the engineering, rain, inflow and inundation status. The limited water level ensures the safety of the dam and downstream, then its risk is analyzed, the result shows that this method may increase the impound probability at the end of flood season, which offers the theoretical guidance for practical dispatching of reservoirs.
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