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中文摘要：
针对传统的洪水预报方案风险分析方法仅考虑设计变量的随机性而未考虑设计变量及失事准则的模糊性的不足,从考虑洪水预报失事准则的模糊性出发,计算了洪水预报系统的模糊风险。通过引入水平截集三角模糊数将预报失事准则模糊性转化为非模糊性,并结合传统的改进一次二阶矩（AFOSM）风险分析方法,给出了洪水预报各变量及系统的模糊风险区间值。实例应用表明,该方法得到的模糊风险能表示不同程度的风险值,比传统的风险确定值更符合实际,且可为决策者提供更多的决策信息。
英文摘要：
Owing to only considering the randomicity of design variables while not considering its fuzzy characteristic and wreck rules, there is shortcoming of traditional flood forecast risk analysis method. From the view of considering the fuzzy wreck rules, this paper presents the fuzzy risk analysis method to flood forecast. Horizontal cross set triangle fuzzy number can transform the fuzzy forecast wreck rules to deterministic rules. And the fuzzy risk range of each variable and the system of flood forecast can be obtained by AFOSM risk analysis method. Example shows that the fuzzy risk obtained by this method can denote different risk value and accord with practice, which is better than the risk obtained by the traditional method and can provide more decision-making information.
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