中文摘要：

利用长三角1997-2009年的相关数据，运用面板VAR模型研究国际技术溢出、自主创新对服务业发展的影响。研究结果表明，从长期来看，长三角国际贸易技术溢出抑制服务业发展，而外商直接投资技术溢出、自主创新投入的增加和自主创新能力的提高促进服务业发展。从短期来看，长三角国际贸易技术溢出和自主创新能力的提高会抑制服务业发展，而外商直接投资技术溢出和自主创新投入的增加促进服务业发展。方差分解结果表明，长三角自主创新对服务业发展的影响程度大于国际技术溢出对服务业发展的影响程度。

英文摘要：

In this paper a Panel VAR model is established using the data from 1997 to 2009 in Yangtze Fiver Delta to estimate the effect of international technology spillover and independent innovation on service development. The results show that international trade technology spillover inhibits service development while foreign direct investment technology spillover,the increase of independent innovation input and the improvement of independent innovation ability promote service development in the long run; international trade technology spillover and the improvement of independent innovation inhibit service development while foreign direct investment technology spillover and the increase of independent innovation input promote service development in the short run. Variance decomposition demonstrates that the effect extent of independent innovation is greater than that of international technology spillover.