中文摘要：

把服务贸易进口与出口两个方面结合起来,构建VAR模型的基础上,运用现代协整理论与冲击分解等计量方法,对我国服务贸易出口、服务贸易进口、服务业发展之间的长期和短期互动关系进行实证研究。结果表明：从长期看,三者之间存在稳定的均衡关系,服务业发展是服务贸易出口增长的Granger原因。从短期看,服务业发展的短期波动受服务贸易进口和服务贸易出口短期变化的影响,其中,服务贸易出口的短期均衡调整力度更为显著。同时,冲击分解结果表明,来自服务业发展的冲击对服务贸易进口和服务贸易出口变化的贡献率都较大。

英文摘要：

Based on the foundation of vector autoregression model,this paper analyzes the interactive relationship of services exports,services imports and services development with the theory of co-integration and variance decomposition.The result shows that：（1） there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the three factors,and that the development of services is industry a Granger reason to service exports;（2） in the short run,the short fluctuation of services development is influenced by services exports and imports,especially services exports;And（3） the result of variance decomposition shows that the contribution rate of the hit from the development of the services industry to the change of services exports and imports is very high.