中文摘要：

为了研究我国农业全要素生产率的变动情况及影响因素，本文全部以实物量指标作为农业生产的投入产出，以避免价格因素对测算结果的影响，并采用非参数的DEA—malmquist指数方法，对我国农业全要素生产率进行了测算和分析，结论为：我国农业全要素生产率呈现出较大的波动性，但从长期来看呈增长趋势；造成农业全要素生产率波动的主要原因是气候变化所造成的自然灾害频发；由于受自然灾害影响，近年来我国农业全要素生产率指数普遍下降，从四大地区来看，只有中部地区生产率提高，其他地区均出现不同程度下降，其中西部地区下降幅度最大。

英文摘要：

In order to study China＇s agricultural productivity and tts mttuencmg actot, analyzed agricultural total factor productivity with the method of malmquist index. In the calculation process, we selected physical quantity indexes as inputs and outputs of agricultural production to avoid the impact of price factors. Then we drew following conclusions. Firstly, China＇s agricultural total factor productivity shows a great volatility, while it also shows a rising trend in the long term. Secondly, frequent natural disasters caused by climate change result in fluctuation of agricultural total factor productivity. Thirdly, Chinas agricultural productivity generally declines in recent years because of natural disasters. Judged [rom the four regions, only the productivity of the central region has improved, while the others have appeared different degree of decline, among which the west region has the greatest reduction.