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中文摘要：
基于技术创新基本原理，构建GERT网络模型，提出不确定性系数，并引入影响参数，分析参数对不确定性系数的影响；进一步，结合实例，运用数值模拟，探寻技术创新过程不确定性的变化特征。结果表明，增强研发激励和企业技术匹配能力可以降低创新过程的不确定性；不确定性系数具有门限效应，达到门限值时的激励和匹配能力为最优。研究结论可以为企业降低技术创新不确性提供决策参考。
英文摘要：
Based on the basic theory of technology innovation, this paper constructs the GERT network model, puts forward the uncertainty coefficient, using the influence parameters to analyze the influence of them on the uncertainty coeffieient~ and use numerical simulation to analyze its variation characteristics. The results indicate that enhancing the motivation of technology arising stage and technology matching capability can reduce the uncertainty of innovation process, at the same time the uncertainty coefficient has a threshold effect, when it reaches the threshold value the motivation and matching capability may become the best one. The conclusion can provide decision-making reference for reducing the innovation for the enterprises.
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