以高投资和低消费为特征的结构失衡成为困扰中国经济的一大顽疾,其造成的资源错配和经济增长质量问题被广泛诟病。通过横、纵向数据比较分析,本文发现中国投资率和消费率均不在两者的合意区间,投资消费结构失衡状况明显。基于双重的结构视角,我们采用中国1998—2011年的省际面板数据对其失衡原因进行计量检验和分析,发现中国投资消费结构失衡的基本逻辑在于需求与供给层面双重经济结构扭曲:需求层面收入分配结构扭曲(收入分配畸形所产生的总量效应)和供给层面技术结构扭曲(低水平技术供给所产生的结构效应)的共同作用是导致失衡的重要原因。未来对于中国经济失衡的纠偏,其关键是在保增长的前提下进行结构调整和战略转型,特别是对双重结构扭曲的治理和矫正。
Structural imbalance characterized by high investment rate and low consumption rate become a major disease of China's economy. And structural imbalance has been widely criticized because it causes resources wrongly organized and problems on quality of economic growth. This paper makes the structure of investment and consumption as the main analysis object,through comparing with the cross and vertical data,and finds that China's current rates of investment and consumption are not both desirable range,which means the structure imbalance of investment and consumption is obvious. From the perspective of the dual structure,we use Chinese cross-provincial panel data from 1998—2011 to test and analyze the reason of structural imbalance,and find that the basic logic on structure imbalanced of investment and consumption in China is caused by the double distortion with the demand and supply. The demand with income distribution deformity and the supply with low level industry are together to form a structural imbalance of investment and consumption.For the future,rectification on economic imbalance mainly focuses on the restructuring and strategic transformation,not only limited to keep economic growth,especially for correcting the dual structure distortions.