中文摘要：

运用概率分析方法建立某转向架构架的参数化有限元模型。选取构架的材料属性、几何参数和载荷等作为随机变量，通过统计分析得到其分布参数。用构架母材和焊缝部位疲劳薄弱处的最大主应力和其许用疲劳强度建立疲劳强度可靠性失效状态函数。基于蒙特卡罗数值模拟方法，计算转向架构架的可靠度及参数灵敏度。分析结果表明：在所选择的随机变量中，空气弹簧部位的载荷变量和材料的许用疲劳强度变量对构架的疲劳强度可靠性影响较灵敏，而板厚变量和局部的载荷变量对构架的疲劳强度可靠性影响不显著。提出了转向架构架可靠性优化设计的建议。

英文摘要：

Using the probabilistic analysis method, the parametric finite element model of a bogie frame was established. The material attributes, the geometric parameters and loads of the bogie frame were set as the random variables and gotten the distributed parameter values by statistical analysis. The failure state functions of the fatigue strength reliability were established by the allowed fatigue strength value and the maximum principal stress of the parent material or weld in fatigue weak location of welded bogie frame. The reliability and parametric sensitivities of the random variables were computed by Monte Carlo method. The analysis results show that the random variables which are more sensitive to the fatigue strength reliability of the bogie frame are the bearing load of the air-spring base and the allowed fatigue strength of material. The plate thickness and local load variables have less significant influence on the reliability sensitivities of the bogie frame. Suggestions for the reliability and optimal design of the bogie frame are proposed.