中文摘要：

在行政学120多年发展过程中出现的各种不同学派的争鸣,仅仅是在不同时期管理主题变动下研究潮流的变迁,这种变迁可以凝练成一个以政治—行政两分的“威尔逊—韦伯”范式为轴心、以时间、历史事件和学科厚度为坐标系的“呼吁行政”与“改造行政学”交织演进的双螺旋模型。在螺旋演进中,形成了研究潮流A、B、C、D、E、F。在未来的20年,我们将面对潮流G的冲击。鉴于第一、二次明诺布鲁克会议推动、预示了潮流E、F的到来,我们在统计分析第三次明诺布鲁克会议资料的基础上预测了研究潮流G将会是“治理”＋“呼吁”＋“改造”≈“治理的绩效管理理论”。

英文摘要：

There were a lot of disputes of various schools during the 120-year developmental process of public administration, which reflect changes of research paradigm during different periods. These changes can be summarized the ＂double-helix evolution＂, in which time and discipline are taken as a coordinate system, and Wilson-Weber paradigm as an axis. In the ＂double-helix evolution＂, A,B,C, D ,E ,F research paradigm were formed. In the future 20 years, G research paradigm will appear. In order to catch up with the international advanced level, we need to predict what G research paradigm is. Given the first and the second Minnobrook Conference predicted E research paradigm and F research paradigm; we can predict that G research paradigm will be ＂the Theory of Governance Performance Management＂ based on analyzing the data of the third Minnobrook Conference.