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中文摘要：
载流导体电阻与温度变化之间有明确的物理解析规律,基于这一规律,借助相量测量单元（PMU）量测的信息,首先建立了遵循线性最小二乘估计电阻并间接跟踪输电线路温度的模型;继而推导了PMU直接量测信息误差分布经过转换后间接量测的误差散布规律与概率表达;最后在量测误差存在相关性的条件下,分析了目标函数值的分布概率,指出传统的不良数据识别手段依然有效。由此,建立输电线路温度的跟踪估计,实现输电线路动态热定值（DTR）的软实现思想,从而为输电线路潜在能力挖掘提供简捷手段,具有良好的应用前景。
英文摘要：
Firstly,based on the explicit analytic expression of conductor s resistance and temperature,an algorithm based on linear least squares state estimation is applied to determine the conductor resistance and hence obtain line temperature using information from phasor measurement unit（PMU）.Subsequently,the law of error propagation and probability expression is deduced when direct measurements are transformed into indirect measurements.Finally,with correlated measurement error,the probability distribution of the performance index is discussed in detail. The result shows that the traditional way for identifying bad measurement is still valid. Therefore, the tracking estimation of transmission line temperature is established, and the idea of soft dynamic thermal rating （DTR） is fulfilled. The method proposed provides a simple way to excavate the potential transmission capability, which shows a good practical prospect.
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