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中文摘要：
风电并网规模的扩大增加了电力系统运行中的不确定性,使电力系统调度决策的复杂性增强。在此背景下,就风电场输出有功功率随机扰动对支路潮流的影响问题进行了探讨,推导出准实时运行条件下节点注入有功功率扰动量对支路潮流变化量的扰动转移分布因子（Disturbance Shift Distribution Factor,DSDF）。并以此说明对于超前调度所计及的直流潮流约束,各风电注入节点有功功率随机扰动所形成的扰动集合中的关键扰动必包含在一个具有2（N其中N表示风电注入节点数）种扰动情况的子集中,该分析为设计具有鲁棒性的超前调度方法提供了理论依据。通过对烟台电网实际系统的随机模拟试验表明了观点的正确性。
英文摘要：
Expansion of wind power integrated into power system increases the uncertainty of system operation,which intensifies the complexity of power system dispatch.In this context,this paper discusses the influence of ouput real power stochastic disturbance of wind farm on branch power flow.A disturbance shift distribution factor（DSDF） is deduced to reflect the relationship between the node injected real power disturbance and the branch power flow variation under quasi-real-time operating situation.Further,the newly deduced factor is used to analyze the branch power flow constraints of advance dispatch in wind power integrated system.Conclusion that the key（or irreplaceable） disturbance scenarios of disturbance set formed by node wind power injected real power disturbance must lay in a set with 2N elements is obtained.This work prepares the necessary theoretical basis for the further development of robust advance dispatch methods.Stochastic simulation of Yantai power grid shows the correctness of the conclusion.
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