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中文摘要：
从货币供应角度，结合定性分析和计量方法解释中国外汇储备对通货膨胀影响的传导关系，建立VAR模型对2003年至2011年中国外汇储备、广义货币供应量与通货膨胀的关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明，外汇储备变化1％会引起通货膨胀同向变动0．048％，对通货膨胀的积极贡献程度为19．697％，且存在2期最大滞后；外汇储备与广义货币供应量互为格兰杰因果关系，广义货币供应量是通货膨胀的格兰杰原因；三者关系表现出明显的阶段性，2008年至2011年外汇储备与通货膨胀的均衡关系消失；中国的广义货币供应量是传导关系的重要中间变量，短期内外汇储备增加不会直接作用于物价水平。相关结论为客观认识外汇储备与通货膨胀关系提供了新视角。
英文摘要：
From the perspective of money supply, this study combines qualitative analysis with quantitative methods to explore the conductivity relationship between China＇s foreign exchange reserves and inflation. This study builds VAR model to empirically study the relationship among China＇s foreign exchange reserves, money supply and inflation based on the data from 2003 to 2011 in China. The results show that 1% increase of foreign exchange reserves will cause 0. 048% growth of inflation and the growth of foreign exchange reserves positively contribute 19.679% to inflation with two times of maximum hysteresis. In addition, for- eign exchange reserves and money supply are Granger causes to each other, while money supply is the Granger cause of inflation. The relationship among China＇s foreign exchange reserves, money supply and inflation demonstrate distinct stages and the equi- librium relationship between foreign exchange reserves and inflation disappeared from 2008 to 2011. Meanwhile, money supply is an essential intermediate variable of the conductivity relationship between foreign exchange reserves and inflation, and the in- crease of foreign exchange reserves in a short term does not exert a direct influence on inflation. The conclusions in this study provide a new perspective of objective understanding of the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and inflation.
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