以灾害系统理论为基础对世界地震灾害风险进行了评估,包括人口死亡风险和经济一社会财富损失风险。以50a超越概率为10%的地震动峰值加速度作为世界致灾因子强度的指标,利用各个国家的地震灾害建筑物易损性和建筑倒塌造成人口死亡的可能性,构建了各个国家的地震灾害人口死亡易损性表,并以人口密度作为承灾体暴露度,进行人口死亡的风险评估。将GDP数据通过投资率转化为社会财富,以此代替GDP作为社会经济承灾体,计算不同致灾因子强度下的经济损失率,进行地震灾害经济一社会财富损失评估。评估结果显示,世界地震灾害人口死亡和经济一社会财富损失风险的分布总体格局与致灾因子的空间分布一致,但局部与承灾体的总量分布及其易损性有关。
This paper assessed world earthquake disaster risk by analyzing the hazard and the vulnerability as well as amount of exposure based on the disaster - system theory. Two kinds of exposures are taken into account : people and economy. Peak ground acceleration with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years was taken as an index of hazard intensity. National population vulnerability tables were constructed using national building vulnerability and inventory and fatality rate caused by building collapse Population density was chosen as the index as population ex- posure, based on which earthquake disaster mortality risk was assessed. Social wealth instead of GDP was taken as the economy exposure, in which GDP is transformed into social wealth by national investment rate. Earthquake dis- aster economic - social wealth loss risk was then assessed based on social wealth loss rates under different hazard in- tensities. The results show that, the spatial pattern of world earthquake disaster mortality risk and economic - social wealth loss risk is similar to that of the hazard intensity. The delicate pattern, however, depends on the vulnerabili-ty and amount of exposure.