自然灾害风险分散体系在综合灾害风险防范中发挥着重要作用,分析和对比不同风险分散工具的效率与效益,对实现工具组合与体系优化具有重要的意义。本文选取了保险、彩票和捐赠三种可以实现公众灾害风险分摊的金融工具,分别基于社会最优风险分散理论和中国历史上发挥的作用对三者的效率与效益进行初步对比。研究表明,理想条件下保险与捐赠均可实现最优的风险分散;现实市场中,三者均无法实现帕累托最优。当前中国的自然灾害风险分散体系仍然不发达,三者在中国历史重大自然灾害风险分散与损失补偿中的贡献水平从高到低依次为捐赠、彩票和保险。在中国,由于灾害风险分散所依赖的金融市场发展程度仍然较低,对三者的深入对比分析需要依托理论市场和消费者选择模型进一步深化研究。
Natural disaster risk financing plays a significant role in integrated disaster risk governance. Thorough analysis and comparison of the efficiency and effectiveness of different risk financing instruments is of great importance to risk financing instrument integration and system optimization. Disaster insurance, lottery and donation are financing instruments which can realize risk spread for public disasters. In the context of optimal allocation of riskbearing theory and based on the historical financial market data, this article aimed to compare the efficiency and effectiveness of these three instruments. The result shows that, risk can be optimally redistributed with insurance and donation theoretically. In the real world, however,none of these three instruments can achieve Pareto optimal distribution of risk. The natural disaster risk financing system has not been well developed and complete yet in China. Donation makes the most contribution to disaster risk financing and loss compensation, lottery the second and insurance the least. Since disaster risk financing has a heavy rely on the financial market which is not well developed in China, the in-depth comparison of these three instruments requires further research based on ideal markets and consumer choice model.