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2008年中国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害网络建模及演化机制研究
  • ISSN号:1000-0585
  • 期刊名称:《地理研究》
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:P532[天文地球—古生物学与地层学;天文地球—地质学]
  • 作者机构:[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875, [2]北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875, [3]北京师范大学资源学院,北京100875, [4]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871
  • 相关基金:国家重点基础研究发展计划(2012CB955402); 地表过程模型与模拟创新研究群体科学基金(41321001)
中文摘要:

基于中国0.5°×0.5°逐日气温和降水格网数据,利用复杂网络分析方法,对2008年南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害综合致灾过程进行再认识,综合分析低温雨雪冰冻灾害在时空维度的网络特性。结果表明:2008年南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害是典型的多灾种叠加事件,低温与雨雪灾害叠加放大了致灾因子的危险性;基础设施设防水平低与春运高峰叠加增大了承灾体的脆弱性;低山丘陵区与人口聚集区叠加降低了孕灾环境的稳定性。低温冰冻雨雪灾害具有小世界特征和核心—边缘结构,具体表现为:在空间打击上具有集聚性,影响区域相对集中;在时间打击上具有连续性,间隔1天事件相对较少。在研究方法上,复杂网络是一种有效分析多灾种叠加的方法,可以进一步挖掘自然灾害的时空演化信息。

英文摘要:

In recent years, some new areas of development have been proposed for natural disaster science. It is suggested that the discipline should try to attach more importance to recognizing disaster loss accumulation and amplification trends, re-evaluate the mechanisms of major natural disasters, and facilitate interdisciplinary research between natural disaster and complexity science. The 2008 Chinese ice storm struck the most populated and economically developed region of China, and direct economic losses exceeded $22.3 billion(indirect losses may have been even greater). Recognition of the formation mechanism of the 2008 Chinese ice storm will be very important for developing integrated disaster risk reduction strategies. This study employed daily temperature and precipitation data from a 0.5° × 0.5° gridded dataset released by China's National Meteorological Information Center to evaluate the synthetic hazard process of the severe cold surge, ice-snow events, and corresponding frozen disasters in southern China in 2008. More specifically, we analyzed the spatial-temporal structure and complexity of the catastrophes by using bipartite networks. Results indicated that the large freezing rain and snow disaster was a typical multi-disaster overlaying event. The overlaying of freezing rain and snow amplified the risks of other hazards such as critical infrastructure failures. Moreover, the timing of the event, which occurred during the Chinese New Year,increased the vulnerability of people to exposures(i.e., they were more likely to be traveling).Low mountain-hilly terrain and high population density reduced the stability of the fostering environment. The freezing rain and snow catastrophes in 2008 showed the mathematical characteristics of small-world features. In terms of spatial data, the occurrence of hazards was clustered when the unprecedented ice struck the region; in terms of temporal data, the intervals between successive waves were too short for ice to melt or be broken, thus disaster losses were

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期刊信息
  • 《地理研究》
  • 北大核心期刊(2011版)
  • 主管单位:中国科学院
  • 主办单位:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
  • 主编:刘毅
  • 地址:北京安外大屯路甲11号
  • 邮编:100101
  • 邮箱:dlyj@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 电话:010-64889584
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1000-0585
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:11-1848/P
  • 邮发代号:2-110
  • 获奖情况:
  • 中国地理优秀期刊
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 日本日本科学技术振兴机构数据库,中国中国人文社科核心期刊,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2004版),中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),中国北大核心期刊(2000版)
  • 被引量:45649