中文摘要：

依据本底趋势线理论，利用1979—2006年黄山、普陀山、武夷山客流量统计数据，对旅游成长进行了定量分析。结果发现：1．年际尺度上3个遗产地的旅游成长均可分解为趋势项、周期项和事件旅游冲击3个部分。2．由于景区开发历史、旅游区位、经济发展水平等因素的不同，各景点旅游发展的起点和增长速率有所不同，普陀山景区，旅游业发展起点高、增长快；武夷山景区，旅游业发展起点低、增长慢；3．受经济增长周期和旅游投资周期等因素的影响，3个遗产地旅游发展均存在2个时间尺度的周期，其中，较长时间尺度为17—19a库兹涅茨周期，较短时间尺度为5～6a的基钦周期；4．“89风波”、亚洲金融危机和2003年SARS是3次具有全国规模的突发事件旅游危机，由于各遗产地旅游区位和所处成长阶段不同，3个遗产地旅游成长对3次旅游危机的响应，在损失量（率）上存在着较大的差异。

英文摘要：

Based on the theory of natural trend curve and tourism＇ data from 1979 to 2006, the growth of China＇ s three heritages＇ tourism are analyzed. Result shows that： ①Annual scale of the three heritages＇ tourism＇ s growth process can be divided into 3 parts ： trend, cycle, and impacts of the incidents. ②The starting point for the development of tourism attractions and the growth rate are different because of the history of tourism attractions, the locations and the level of economic development and so on. The starting point for the development of Putuo Moun- tain＇ s tourism is high, and the speed of its development is fast. The starting point for the development of Wuyis- ban＇s tourism is low, and the speed of its development is slow; ③ Impacted by the cycle of economic growth and tourism investment and other factors, the three heritages＇ tourism development exist two different kinds of cycle, in which, the longer cycle lasting for 17 -19 years is Kuznets cycle, the shorter cycle, lasting for 5 - 6 years is Kitchin cycle; ④ ＂89 political incidence＂, the Asian financial crisis and SARS in 2003 are three national crisis to tourism, the loss.yolume （rate） of the three heritage＇ s tourism impacted by the three incidences are different, be- cause their locations and the growth stages are different.