中文摘要：

我国电力工业以火电为主,是煤炭消耗和SO2排放的最大行业。本文依据1991年-2007年有关统计数据,构建了一个＂双三角＂的概念模型,一方面分析了我国火力发电量与燃煤消耗量、燃煤消耗量与SO2排放量的关系,另一方面分析了发电耗煤强度和燃煤SO2排放强度随时间的变化。结果表明：①火力发电量与燃煤消耗量为二次函数关系,但二次项系数很小,说明我国火电行业还处于外延性的规模扩张阶段;②燃煤消耗量与SO2排放量随我国国民经济＂五年＂规划呈周期波动,这反映了我国谋求经济增长与环境保护的动态博弈过程;③发电耗煤强度和燃煤SO2排放强度总体呈下降趋势,但当国家放松节能减排政策及关停小火电的步伐放缓时就会出现反弹期。研究结果为认清我国火电行业的节能减排问题提供了科学依据。

英文摘要：

Thermal power industry,the largest contributor in coal consumption and sulfur dioxide emission,accounts for approximately 80% of the total power installed capacity in China during a long period.Coal consumption and sulfur dioxide emission in the thermal power industry occupy 50% and 52% of the total emissions of China,respectively.The authors developed a ＂double-triangle＂ conceptual model based on relevant statistical data from 1991 to 2007.First,this paper examines the relationship between coal consumption and thermal power generation and the relationship between sulfur dioxide emission and coal consumption,presenting an ＂inner-triangle＂ shape.The analyses were essentially based on the environmental Kuznets curve（EKC） hypothesis,which is one of the promising approaches unraveling the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality.Furthermore,due to the importance of the coal-fired consumption intensity and sulfur dioxide emission intensity to economic technology and environmental economy studies in the thermal power industry,this paper documents changes in the two intensities over the recent 20 years,displaying an ＂outer-triangle＂ shape.It was found that the relationship between thermal power generation and coal consumption follows a quadratic function.With technical progress and structural adjustment in the industry,the growth rate of coal consumption would be much lower than that of the thermal power generation,indicating progressively improved energy efficiency.The annual growth rates of thermal power generation and coal consumption were found to be 7.9% and 7.3%,respectively,from 1991 to 2001,while 15.3% and 13.8% from 2002 to 2007,showing a small quadratic coefficient.This could be as a consequence of a continued large-scale expansion of the thermal power industry in China.It was also found that with coal consumption increasing,sulfur dioxide emission is also increasing.In this process,it fluctuates regularly with corresponding Five-Year Plan of China,which reflects the dynam