中文摘要：

依据多种调查资料和旅游本底趋势线理论，对2008年北京奥运会引致下的旅游客流量变化及客源结构进行细致的预测，主要结论如下：（1）奥运庆典引致下，未来3年北京市入境旅游进入一个超常增长期，客流量统计线将掀起一个“凸形峰”，2007～2009年入境客流量分别达到433．6万、517．2万和465．3万人次，较起本底趋势线净增长8％、25％和10％；（2）国内旅游也将进入一个超常增长期，2007～2009年国内客流量分别达到14410万、17384万和16285万人次，较本底趋势线净增长4％、20％和8％。入境旅游的相对贡献率高于国内旅游；（3）奥运庆典引致下的北京市国际／国内客流量超常增长是一个具有特定周期的事件旅游，可划分为“奥前”、“奥中”和“奥后”三个阶段，本文依据客流量年内变化和奥运庆典生命周期，给出了2007-2009年3年各月客流量的预测值；（4）奥运盛典及其设施与活动像“磁场”吸引着国内外游客，结合近年来主要客源市场调查资料，给出了国际国内客源地客流量预测值。

英文摘要：

The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games is the first and large-scale celebration events that China undertakes since entering the new century; it will bring about gigantic influence on the Beijing＇s inbound and domestic tourism. Based on the theory of background trend line and a variety of survey data, the variation of tourists both at home and abroad and their distribution caused by Beijing Olympic Games in 2008 are forecasted. The results are as follows： ①Affected by the Olympic Games, Beijing＇s international tourism will go to a super-normal increase time in the coming three years. Compared with background trend line, the statistic line will form a summit. The number of Beijing＇s inbound tourists in 2007, 2008 and 2009 will reach 4, 34 million respectively, 5.17 million and 4.65 million respectively. The net increase rates will reach 8% ,25% and 10% compared with the number based on the background trend line. ②Beijing＇s domestic tourism will go to a super-normal increase time in the coming three years. The number of Beijing＇s domestic tourists in 2007, 2008 and 2009 will reach 144.1 million, 173.84 million, and 162.85 million respectively. The net increase rates will reach 4%, 20% and 8% compared with the number based on the back ground trend line.③ Affected by the Olympic Games, the time series variation of Beijing＇s inbound and domestic tourism has a special lifestyle, it can be divided into three states of ＂pre-Olympic＂, ＂in Olympic＂ and ＂post-after Olympic＂, and separately named the breeding and generating state, the climax state and the weakening and smoothing state. Based on the monthly variation of tourists flow, tourism climate comfort, and the lifestyle of the Olympic Games, the tourists flow of each month in 2007, 2008 and 2009 is forecasted. ④The Olympic Games and its facilities attract tourists both at home and abroad just like a magnetic field. Its attraction to tourists is inversely proportional to special distance and is directly proportional to the preference to physica