中文摘要：

由于农业保险所承保的农业自然灾害具有统计学上的不可预测性,灾害学上的时空延展性和经济学上的不可控性,使得经营农业保险的保险公司面临较高赔付风险。为测算我国农业保险的赔付风险度,收集整理1984~2012年农业保险与财产保险赔付率数据,采用H-P滤波分解法对其进行长期趋势与短期波动的分解和比较分析。研究发现：我国农业保险整体赔付水平和赔付的波动幅度远高于财产保险,验证了农业保险具有高风险经营的特性。但是近年来,农业保险长期赔付趋势呈现平稳略微下降态势,短期波动幅度逐步收敛。未来随着经营主体的增加,农业保险经营中须把握保险保障度的提升与保险公司经营风险管控的有效平衡;农业保险的适当盈利性与福利改进的有效融合。

英文摘要：

Agricultural insurance is high risk business, and it is due to the agricultural risks that be covered by policy. These risks are difficult to be forecasted and to be evaluated. Frequently these risks will spread in space and extend in time. To evaluate the compensation risks of agricultural insurance, data on compensation ratio from 1984 to 2012 for agricultural insurance and property insurance are collected and H - P filter is used to get the com- pensation trend and fluctuation. Research finds that： the compensation risk of agricultural insurance is lowing al- though it is still higher than that of property insurance; compensation risk of agricultural insurance is a long term downtrend and fluctuation is becoming narrow. In the long run the insurance companies should keep balance be- tween protection and risk control; combine profitability and welfare.