中文摘要：

为了降低生产系统故障频率及维护成本，保证系统的安全运行，通过建立成本分析模型，对随机退化的串行生产系统提出了一种机会维护的建模方法．首先应用定态gamma分布对各设备的随机退化过程进行建模，在此基础上引入不完全维护的整合退化量恢复因子，提出了基于条件的机会维护策略．考虑设备退化的随机性，以总成本为优化目标，建立了有限时间内维护成本的分析模型．最后通过实验分析，确定了系统维护成本和检测周期以及机会维护成本之间的关系．分析结果表明，该机会维护建模方法是可行、有效的．

英文摘要：

To reduce the failure rate and maintenance cost of production systems, an opportunistic mainte- nance model was proposed for a series production system which experiences stochastic degradation. A sta- tionary gamma process was used to model the uncertain degradation for each unit o{ the system. By intro- ducing integrated recovery factor of imperfective maintenance, a condition-based opportunistic maintenance policy was proposed. A formulation was developed for computing the expected value of the maintenance cost over a defined time horizon. The optimal inspection interval of the system could be found by minimi- zing the expected maintenance cost. Finally, a simulation experiment was conducted to show that the pro- posed model was feasible and valid.