中文摘要：

本文利用非参数K-M生存分析法和离散时间Cloglog模型对中国出口贸易持续时间及其影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明：中国出口贸易动态变化较为显著,持续时间的中位数只有2年,且存在＂门槛效应＂效应,超过4年以后失败的概率明显降低;目的国经济规模、首次出口额、多元化等上升有利于降低出口贸易失败的概率,而地理距离、单位价值、人民币汇率等上升则会增加出口贸易中断风险。最后,就延长中国出口贸易持续时间提出了一些建议。

英文摘要：

Using the non - parameter Kaplan - Meier method and the discrete time Cloglog model, this paper empirically studies the duration of China＇ s export and its decisive factors. The results indicate that the dynamic change of China＇ s export relation- ship is very remarkable and the median of the duration is only two years. There is also the threshold effect for China＇ s export. The survival rate of trade relationship is lower at the beginning, but the failure rate after four years declines significantly. The ris- ing of economic scale, initial export volume, diversification and so on, will reduce the failure probability of export relationship. While the rising of geographic distance, unit value, RMB exchange rate and so on, will increase the failure probability of export relationship. Finally, this paper put forward some suggestion about how to lengthen the duration of China＇ s export.