基于京津冀一体化背景,构建包括能耗与排放指标的产业结构生态化指标体系,可涉及产业结构合理化、高级化和可持续化三个方面。在比较分析1991—2013年京津冀产业结构生态化趋势特征与差异的基础上,运用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL模型)对产业结构生态化与能源结构的关系进行实证分析,可探讨京津冀产业结构生态化演进对能源结构的短期与长期的动态影响。分析结果表明,京津冀产业结构生态化水平差异明显,河北远远滞后于京津地区,京津冀总体生态化演进趋势缓慢;京津冀产业结构生态化演进对能源消费结构具有长期均衡影响;产业结构高级化水平对能源消费结构影响最大,而产业结构合理化的影响较小。
This paper constructs the index system of the ecologization of industrial structure based on the back- ground of integration of the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region,including the energy consumption and the emission in-dex, which involves rationalizing, upgrading and sustaining of industrial structure. Based on comparing and analyzing the characteristics and differences of the ecological trend of industrial structure among Bcijing, Tianjin and Hebei from 1991 to 2013 ,it uses ARDL model to conduct an empirical analysis on the relationship between the ecologiza- tion of industrial structure and energy structure, discussing the dynamic effects of short - term and long-term of the ecological evolution of industrial structure on energy structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The results show that the difference of the ecologization of industrial structure among Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is obvious, Hebei lags far behind Beijing and Tianjin,the overall ecological evolution of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is slow;the ecological evolution of industrial structure has the long - term balanced impact on energy consumption structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region;the advanced level of Industrial structure has the greatest impact on the energy consumption structure and the rational level of industrial structure has smaller effect.