欧美国家正经历着实际利率的持续下降,要实现充分就业短期内已无可能,这意味着其经济增长将陷入长期停滞的困境。究其根本原因,在于经济运行方式中已逐步被观察到的一个新的典型化事实,即经济虚拟化。经济虚拟化的进程中,虚拟资本全球性的泛滥式膨胀,经济杠杆化过程不断泛化,推动均衡实际利率下降,使得宏观经济政策的有效性弱化,最终增长陷入长期停滞。欧美经济要想走出停滞的困境,需要进行经济结构的去虚拟化,然而这是一个漫长而痛苦的过程。
The economy of European and American countries have been experiencing the declining of real interest rates, full-employment of real interest rates seem impossible realize, means that economic growth will fall into the predicament of secular stagnation. This paper argues that the root cause of secular stagnation is that the economy fictionalization. This made not only leading sector come into fictionalization, but also urge virtual capital expansion all around world, resulting inflation trends and insufficient effective demand, eventually grow into a secular stagnation; If we want to step out of the dilemmas of stagnation, this need for economic structure undergoing a rebalancing process, but it is a long and painful way.