中文摘要：

水电站水库发电调度风险分析对于寻求兼顾风险与效益的最佳调度方案具有重要意义。针对传统风险计算方法难以适应中长期发电调度需要的特点，提出了概率最优化风险分析方法，构建中长期发电调度风险评价指标体系来量化风险大小，基于概率最优化风险分析方法的思想建立了中长期发电调度风险分析的随机期望值模型，并提出风险因子的灵敏度分析概念来衡量各类风险指标之间的转化关系。算例结果表明，该模型能使水库在承担一定风险情况下追求发电效益的相对最大化，对调度方案的制定与决策具有一定的理论意义和参考价值。

英文摘要：

Risk analysis of hydropower generation scheduling is important for seeking the best scheduling scheme that takes into consideration both the risk and the benefit. A probability optimization method for risk analysis is proposed to avoid the defects of traditional methods, which are difficult to meet the scheduling needs in risk calculating. And a risk evaluation index system of long-term generation scheduling is constructed to quantify the risk. Based on the probability optimization method for risk calculating, a random expectation model of generation scheduling risk analysis is established and at the same time a concept of sensitivity analysis of risk factors is given to measure the conversion relationship between various types of risk indicators. The example results show that this model can take some risks in the pursuit of maximum power generation efficiency, and has some theoretical significance and reference value for scheduling program development and decision-making.