中文摘要：

针对天津市水资源短缺的现状和水资源系统所具有的复杂系统特征，在综合考虑水资源需求、水资源供给、非常规水源利用、南水北调供水、缺水程度的影响等因素的情况下，采用系统动力学方法，建立了天津市水资源承载力系统动力学模型（SD），通过该模型对天津市2011--2030年的水资源承载力进行了预测和分析，提出3种发展模式。并进一步分析比较得出一个经济和环境协调发展的综合模式，从而为决策者提供了科学的决策依据。

英文摘要：

Regarding the status of water shortage in Tianjin and the complexity of water system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity in Tianjin （SD） with the system dynamics method, considering water demand, water supply, non-conventional water use, South-to-North Water Diversion Project, water shortages and other factors. By simulating the dynamic changes of water resources carrying capacity in Tianjin from 2011 to 2030, three development modes are put forward, and then a comprehensive model is established which can can cause environment and economy to develop harmoniously, So decisionmakers can use it to make more scientific and dependable decisions.