中文摘要：

快速简便的风险计算方法对于复杂工程体系的风险分析具有重要意义。结合随机模拟和最大熵方法的优点,对2种方法进行了耦合,提出风险计算的模拟最大熵法,并基于该方法建立了河道行洪风险分析模型。通过对淮河中游鲁台子-西淝河闸段河道行洪风险的计算分析表明,模拟最大熵法能有效避免利用随机模拟方法在计算河道行洪风险时收敛速度较慢的缺点,为复杂工程体系的风险计算提供了一条简便可行的途径。

英文摘要：

A quick and easy method of risk analysis is important for complex engineering system.Combined with the advantages of stochastic simulation and maximum entropy method,the simulate maximum entropy method is presented for risk calculation,and based on this method the risk model of river flood has been established.The application in the flood risk analysis of the Lu table to xifei floodgate shows that,the simulated maximum entropy method can effectively avoid the shortcoming of Monte Carlo in the calculation of river flood risk,and provides a new way for the risk calculation of complex engineering system.