中文摘要：

农村居民消费是制约农村经济快速、可持续增长的重要原因,对吉林省农村居民的消费需求进行准确可靠的预测,可以为吉林农民的消费行为提供理论依据,为政府预测新的经济前景、制定新政策提供重要参考。为此,分别利用回归分析模型、灰色预测GM（1,1）模型以及神经网络模型3种单模型对吉林省的农村居民消费需求进行了预测,并根据标准差法算出3个单项模型的权重,最后构建组合预测模型对吉林省农村居民消费趋势进行实证研究。

英文摘要：

The countryside resident consumption is the vital cause that restricts the rural economy fast and sustainable growth.We Carry on the accurate reliable forecast to the Jilin Province countryside resident＇s consumption demand,may provide the theory basis for the Jilin farmer＇s consumption behavior,for the government provide the important reference that forecasts the new economic prospect,formulates the new policy.This article have carried on the forecast to Jilin Province＇s countryside resident consumer demand with three kind of single models,it is the regression analysis model,the gray forecast GM（1,1） model as well as the neural network model,and figured out the weight of three single item models according to standard difference,finally construct the combination forecast model,and made the empirical study to the Jilin Province countryside resident expend tendency and drew on the conclusion.