针对已有城市交通出行链行为分析模型的不足,分析了城市交通出行链的基本概念与简单出行链的可能路径,并基于起讫点限制条件与多模式交通网络下的交通距离限制条件,推导构建了基于最大熵模型的多模式交通网络下城市交通出行链行为模型,给出了参数估计与先验概率选择方法;将模型应用到成都市中心城区居民出行样本数据中,通过出行链距离、出行链中交通小区间的出行量、出行链到达小区的数量、出行链小区的到达发生量、各类出行链的出行量等5个指标对模型进行了检验。结果表明:模型值与实际值拟合度较好,说明模型是有效的,可做为全面分析城市交通出行的一个有效模型工具。
In order to overcome the deficiencies of the existing behavior models of trip chains for urban transporta-tion,the basic concept of the urban trip chain and the possible paths in a simple trip chain were analyzed,and a model based on the entropy-maximizing (EM)model was proposed to describe the trip chain behavior in a multi-mode transportation network,in which origin-destination constraints and travel distance constraints were introduced. Then,the corresponding parameter estimation procedure and prior probability setting method were given.Finally, the model was applied to the analysis of sample data of the resident trip survey in the inner city of Chengdu,with its effectiveness being verified by 5 benchmark indexes including the travel distance of trip chains,the trip flow be-tween zones of trip chains,the number of trip chains approaching different zones,the individuals of different trip chains and the individuals of different types of trip chains.The results show that the proposed model accords well with real values,so that it can be used as an effective modeling tool for analyzing urban transportation travel.