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中文摘要：
随着太阳能发电在世界范围内的迅速发展,兆瓦级以上的大型太阳能发电系统将直接接入输电系统,其对区域间的极限传输容量（TTC）影响成为一个关键问题。针对太阳能发电系统的不确定性,提出了基于点估计法和Cornish-Fisher级数的含大型太阳能发电系统的TTC概率计算方法。文中首先采用点估计法构造随机变量估计点,用内点法求解随机变量估计点的TTC,从而得到TTC的统计特征值,并由Cornish-Fisher级数获得其概率分布特性。通过对IEEE 30节点系统的计算分析,结果表明该方法计算精度较高,且与Monte Carlo方法相比具有较小的计算量。
英文摘要：
With photovoltaic generation developing rapidly across the world,there are MW grade solar parks being connected directly into the power system.The impact on total transfer capability（TTC） of interconnected power systems becomes a very important issue.Taking into account of the uncertainties of solar park,a point estimate method and Cornish-Fisher expansion based probabilistic calculation of TTC containing solar park is investigated.with the point estimate method,the probabilistic problems can be handled as those corresponding to deterministic problems.The interior point method is employed to calculate TTC on the estimated points of random variables,and the statistical properties of TTC are obtained.According to Cornish-Fisher expansion,the probabilistic distribution functions are calculated.Numerical results of IEEE 30-bus test system are presented.The proposed method has a high degree of accuracy and low computational burden compared with the Monte Carlo method.
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