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中文摘要：
鉴于传统方法在处理存在由部件选择性失效传播引起的共因失效的复杂可修系统可靠性与可用性评估问题时的缺陷，提出一种基于元胞自动机思想的蒙特卡洛模拟方法用以评估存在共因失效的复杂可修系统的可靠性。该方法首先将系统转化成二终端网络，然后基于问题的基本假设去模拟不同时刻下网络各边对应的状态值，利用元胞自动机并行搜索的优势判断每次模拟过程中不同时刻下网络的连通性，从而推导出计算系统可靠性、瞬时可用性、区间可用性、系统平均维修时间以及系统单位时间平均维修次数的具体算法。最后，通过算例对算法进行了说明。
英文摘要：
Because of the drawbacks of traditional algorithms when dealing with the problems of evaluating the reliability and availability of complex repairable system containing components with propagated failures having selective effect,a Monte Carlo simulation algorithm was presented based on the idea of cellular automata.The proposed algorithm converted the system into a two-terminal net-work,then,simulated the states of each arc of the network at different times based on basic assump-tions of problems.The algorithm ascertained the connectivity of the network at different times in every iteration using cellular automata which had the advantages of parallel searching.The specific algorithms of computing reliability,instantaneous availability,interval availability,mean downtime and mean maintenance frequency per unit time of the system were proposed.Finally,an example was given to illustrate how the algorithms were applied.
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