中文摘要：

对碎片流动危险的评价为开发措施减轻生活和性质的损失并且最小化环境损坏是重要的。二个修改无常模型，设置了对分析(矿泉) 并且修改了集合对分析(mSPA ) ，被建议估计地区性的碎片流动危险。案例研究在 Beichuan 县的七个镇上被进行，四川省，中国，在碎片流动危险评价测试并且比较这二个模型的应用程序。结果证明 mSPA 能仅仅为值变量，然而并非为适合而且，非，值变量评价索引至于一个给定的评价索引 xi ，也就是， mSPA 仅仅考虑二个盒子什么时候分级价值，与 xi 增加，什么时候分级价值，与 x 减少<潜水艇class=“ a-plus-plus ”> i 。因此， mSPA 不能被用于碎片流动危险评价，但是因为没有限制，当使用矿泉模型估计碎片流动危险时，矿泉为评价是可信的。因此，在这研究，矿泉为估计碎片流动危险被建议。

英文摘要：

Assessment of debris flow hazards is important for developing measures to mitigate the loss of life and property and to minimize environmental damage. Two modified uncertainty models, Set Pair Analysis （SPA） and modified Set Pair Analysis （mSPA）, were suggested to assess the regional debris flow hazard. A ease study was conducted in seven towns of the Beichuan county, Sichuan Province, China, to test and compare the application of these two models in debris flow hazard assessment. The results showed that mSPA only can fit for value-variables, but not for non value-variable assessment indexes, Furthermore, as for a given assessment index xi, mSPA only considers two cases, namely, when grade value increases with xi and when grade value decreases with xi. Thus, mSPA can not be used for debris flow hazard assessment but SPA is credible for the assessment because there are no limitations when using SPA model to assess the debris flow hazard. Therefore, in this study SPA is proposed for assessing debris flow hazard.