中文摘要：

基于熵值法提出能够衡量生态足迹和生物承载力构成多样性的生态足迹构成指数和生物承载力构成指数两个新概念，计算并构建了中国人均生态足迹构成指数和生物承载力构成指数较为理想的ARIMA预测模型分别为ARIMA（2，1，1）、ARIMA（1，1，1）。结果表明，2006-2010年，中国人均生态足迹构成指数将在波动中有所下降，生物承载力构成指数持续下降，未来4年可持续发展潜力在波动中也将有所降低。中国人均生态足迹构成指数与10个驱动因素的偏最小二乘回归分析发现，正相关因素依次为城镇人口、第一产业产值、总人口、进出口贸易总额、第三产业产值，负相关因素依次为政府消费、农业人口、居民消费、人均GDP、第二产业产值。

英文摘要：

Two concepts of ecological footprint component index（EFCI） and bicapacity component index（BCCI） are proposed based on ecological footprint（EF） and entropy methods in this paper.EFCI and BCCI in China 1949-2006 are calculated,and predicted with autoregressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model.The results show that： 1） Over the last 57 years,EFCI in China has constantly increased with fluctuation,being 0.0081 in 1949 and 0.0285 in 2006,respectively.BCCI has slowly decreased with fluctuation,but increased in some years.For example,BCCI is 0.0264 in 1949,0.0147 in 1983,0.0169 in 1984,and 0.0132 in 2006,respectively.2） Many tests（including ADF and PP unit root test of residues,fitting forecast and real series） show that ARIMA（2,1,1） model of EFCI,ARIMA（1,1,1） model of BCCI are their optimum prediction models,respectively.The forecasts calculated from 2007 to 2010 indicate that EFCI will increase to 0.0293 in 2007 and then fall to 0.0280 in 2010,while BCCI will decrease to 0.0129 in 2010. The relationship between EFCI and each of the selected ten influencing factors with prominent correlative coefficients is analyzed.A model between EFCI and the ten factors is constructed based on partial least-squares regression（PLSR） method in order to explore their sequence of correlation influence.The results show that the positive correlation sequence is urban population,primary industry output value,total population,total value of imports and exports,and tertiary industry output value.The negative correlation sequence is government consumption expenditure,rural population,resident consumption expenditure,per capita GDP,and secondary industry output value.The modeling of the abundance indices is a useful tool for a better understanding of the dynamics of EF component,and enables short-term quantitative recommendations of ecosystem management.The effective approaches which could boost up sustainable development in China may be adjusting population structure,boosting primary industry and i