中文摘要：

本文首次用EMD方法,对山东省的经济增长与耕地面积变化关系进行比较分析,试图找出两者的互动关系,以期对山东省的耕地资源保护有所借鉴。研究结果表明：山东省GDP增长的波动周期为13年、23年、37年和55年;山东省耕地变化的周期为9年、13年、37年和55年。这充分证明了GDP增长的波动对山东省耕地周期性变化的驱动作用。到2015年前后,山东省经济增长的耕地代价性损失将大大减少,耕地数量将维持在一个相对稳定的水平,经济增长和耕地数量减少进入一个良性的发展阶段。最后,本文首次尝试建立有周期的动力学模型,对山东省未来20年的耕地面积变化进行了预测。

英文摘要：

Cultivated land, a type of non-renewable resources, has its quantity changes often presented several phases with the development of industrialization and urbanization. It is the rapid economic growth and accelerating urbanization process in China that make the limited cultivated land resources to pay a high price for. As a major agricultural province in China, the reduction of cultivated land resources in Shandong Province has become an unavoidable loss of cost for the rapid economic growth phase in the Province and the cultivated trends, which intensified the contradiction of the supply and demand between peo- ple, and seriously affected sustainable development of agriculture in Shandong. Therefore, we must correctly understand the changes of cultivated land area and development trends, and correctly analyze and grasp the primary driving factors and mechanisms for the changes of the cultivated land area. It is of great significance to the proper handling of the relations between the changes of cultivated land area and economic construction. This issue uses the EMD method for the first time, which carries on the comparative analysis of the relations of economic growth and the changes of cultivated land resources of Shandong Province, attempting to find out the interactive relations of them, and to conserve the cultivated land resources of Shandong Province. The findings indicate that the undulating cycles of GDP growth in Shandong are 13, 23, 37and 55 years; the cycles of its cultivated land changes are 9, 13, 37 and 55 years. It has been fully proven that the growth of GDP drives the changes of cultivated land in Shandong. Around the year 2015, the price of cultivated land loss for economic growth in the Province will be greatly reduced, the amount of cultivated land will be maintained at a relatively stable level, and the economic growth and the decrease of cultivated land will enter a good developmental stage. Finally, a dynamic model with a cycle in this issue is made for the first time, and the changes of th