中文摘要：

商品流通与产业升级是两个密切联系的概念，商品流通对产业升级的影响主要是通过对社会财富的增量与存量调整来实现的。本文通过建立基于新兴古典经济学的理论模型，分析商品流通的发展所引起的交易效率的提高对产业升级的影响，然后利用我国的经验数据对两者进行协整分析、误差修正模型检验和因果关系检验。结果表明：我国的商品流通与产业升级之间存在长、短期稳定的正向关系，通过Granger因果关系检验，我国的商品流通的发展是产业升级的Granger原因，而反之却不成立。

英文摘要：

Merchandise circulation and industrial upgrade are two concepts that have close connection. Merchandise circulation has the effect on industrial upgrade mainly is to adjust to the increase and the storage quantities of the public wealth. This paper sets up a model which is based on the theory of new Classical Economics, and analyzed the development of merchandise circulation that causes the enhancement of the transaction efficiency which promotes to industrial upgrade, and then the paper analyzed the effect of merchandise circulation on industrial promotion by utilizing the co-integration and error correction model. Empirical results show that there was a stable positive equilibrium relationship between merchandise circulation and industrial promotion in the long or short run. Through the Granger causality test, it was found that the development of merchandise circulation was the reason for industrial upgrade, and conversely, the conclusion wasn＇t true.