中文摘要：

认识人地关系要素因果反馈联系和构建定量模型是进行城市协调状态评价的关键，以“关中一天水经济区”规划为背景，探讨大西安人地关系协调演进趋势具有现实意义。本文在突出表征城市环境因素对人地关系地域系统运行作用的基础上，优化指标体系，运用资源环境与经济社会发展函数构建复合人地关系协调发展度模型，对西部大开发以来研究区人地关系协调状态的等级与类型进行定量评价。在此基础上，通过灰色模型GM（1，1），预测2011-2020年研究区总人口与耕地面积的模拟值。分析发现：未来10年研究区的总人口年均增长13．99‰，耕地面积年均递减14．30‰，人多地狭的矛盾使生态安全将会受到严重挑战。

英文摘要：

Understanding the causal feedback link of man-land relationship elements and building quantitative model of man-land system are key points for evaluating the city＇s coordination state. It is of great significance to discuss the evolution trend of man-land relationship in Xi＇an under the background of the construction plan for Guanzhong-Tianshui economic zone. It is on of the key region constructed that are put forward in the outline of 1 lth five-year plan for development of the west region in China,according to regional economic development theory.Highlighting the role of urban environmental factor in the man-land relationship running system, this paper optimizes the evaluation index system, uses the function between environment and the social-economic development to construct the model of coordinated man-land relationship, and does quantitative analysis on the levels and types of the coordination state of the man-land relationship in Xi＇an since the implementation of the strategy of western development. The results show that the evolution of the area＇s man-land relationship coordination state has six development stages, including moderate disorders, mild disorders, barely coordination, primary coordination, intermediate coordination and good coordination. At present, man-land relationship of Xi＇an is in a positive cycle of coordination development and environment lag type, and a declining trend has emerged since 2009. This paper further predicts sequence of analog values between the region＇s total population and the amount of cultivated land in the follow-up 10 years through the gray model GM （1, 1）. The analysis shows that in the coming ten years, the total population of Xi＇an would increase by 13.99‰ per year, cultivated land would decrease by 14.30‰ per year, and the ecological balance and environmental protection would be faced with serious challenge.