对于2008年以来的通货膨胀,学界有货币超发说、外汇占款说、成本推进说、外部输入说等多种解释。通过综合考虑成本、流动性、输入性、经济增长、供求失衡等多种因素,分析本轮通胀的内部自生性和外部输入性,并选取国内劳动力成本、货币供应量、国际农产品价格指数、经济增长、人民币汇率等作为解释变量,实证考察了造成本轮通胀的原因。结果表明,引发本轮通胀的主因是成本和经济增长,其次是国际农产品价格和人民币汇率。这在一定意义上说明,本轮通胀主要是自生性因素引起的,输入性因素也发挥了一定作用。为抑制通胀,应该完善生产要素价格形成机制9转变经济发展方式、促进产业结构优化升级,加强与其他国家合作并完善国际农产品价格形成机制,完善人民币汇率形成机制、稳定汇率升值预期。
There are various interpretations such as the theory of issuing too much currency, foreign exchange reserves, cost pushing and external importing et ah for the inflation since 2008. By considering the factors of cost, liquidity, importing, economic growth and the imbalance between supply and demand comprehensively, the paper analyzes internal autogenous and external imported feature of the inflation, then we select the domestic labor costs, monetary supply, the price index of international agricultural product, economic growth, exchange rate of RMB as the explanatory variables to investigate the reasons of the current inflation. The result shows that the main reasons of the current inflation are the factors of cost and economic growth, fol- lowed by the international agricultural product prices and the exchange rate of RMB. The above results indicate that the current inflation is mainly caused by the autogenous factors, and the imported factors also play a certain role. In order to manage the inflation, we should improve formation mechanism of the factor price, transform the mode of economic development, promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, strength the cooperation with other countries and improve the formation mechanism of international agricultural product price, improve the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate to hold the expectation of exchange rate appreciation.