基于结构全寿命设计对环境作用的需求,对哈尔滨地区1963—2002年的逐日极端温度(逐日最高、最低温度)和温度日较差数据进行了统计分析。运用小波分析工具,处理各季、月平均极端温度序列,从定量的角度分析了哈尔滨地区气温的变化趋势;运用数理统计方法,分析了各月逐日极端温度、温度日较差的概率分布,研究了哈尔滨地区气温的演变规律。研究表明:哈尔滨地区极端气温和温度日较差除夏季外,其余各季气温变化趋势较为相似,极端气温均存在6—8a的主周期,温度日较差存在20a左右的主周期,而夏季极端气温和温度日较差存在26a的主周期;正态分布可以很好地描述该地区各月极端气温的变化,但对温度日较差的拟合效果不佳(数据有一定偏度),后者可用广义极值分布拟合。
Based on the need for the environmental action in the life-cycle structural design, the data of daily extreme temperature and daily range of temperature in Harbin from 1963 to 2002 was analyzed. By using the wavelet tools, the mean value sequence of the data for each month and season was analyzed to get the change trend of air temperature in Harbin. And the method of mathematical statistics was used to analyze the data of each month to get the law of change. The result shows that all seasons have a similar trend except summer: there are a period of 6 - 8 years for daily extreme temperature and a period of 20 years for daily range of temperature. For summer, there is a period of 26 years for both extreme temperature and range of temperature. And the daily extreme temperature of each month can be well described by using normal distribution, but it is not suitable for describing the daily range of temperature and for the later the general extreme distribution can be used then.