利用2012年宏观数据,探究中国生物质资源的省域分布及发电潜力阈值,构建生物质发电潜力指数(BPGI)指标体系,评价各省(区、市)生物质发电的发展水平及潜力,并结合省级电网碳排放强度对各省规划装机目标配额进行优化。结果表明:2012年中国生物质发电潜力阈值为1.612×10^5MW/年;河南、黑龙江、山东位列前三,可承担中国"十三五"期间24.10%的生物质发电目标装机量;上海、北京、浙江等地可通过资金输出间接承担。为促进中国生物质发电产业的布局优化、合理开发提供参考。
This paper explores the biomass resource distribution on provincial scale and its threshold for power generation in China, based on the macroscopic data of 2012. Biomass power development and potential are assessed on provincial scale by means of establis- hing Biomass Power Generation Index (BPGI) system, meanwhile the quota of national planned biomass power capacity target is ad- justed and optimized, with consideration of provincial GHG emission factor for grid electricity. The resuhs show that biomass has a huge potential for power capacity of 1. 612 × 10^5 MW annually in China, of which Henan, Heilongjiang and Shandong rank in top three. Furthermore, they are capable of sharing the planned quota for 24. 10% during the 13^th Five-year Plan period. Shanghai, Beijing and Zhejiang can play roles of capital export units and share the quota indirectly. Suggestions are put forward to provide reference for op- timal layout and rational exploration in biomass power industry development.