基于我国能源相关统计数据,利用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)提供的缺省因子法,对全国2000-2012年45个行业部门及30个省区的二氧化碳排放总量进行估算,分析其时空特征。2012年我国碳排放总量为260413.02万吨,年均增长率为7.77%,2012年碳排放强度为0.489吨/万元GDP。电力、热力的生产和供应业为碳排放量最大的部门,2002年占总碳排放的34.96%,之后一直处于34%-37%。山东、内蒙古、河北的碳排放占全国碳排放总量的22.92%,是我国碳排放量最多的3个地区;宁夏、山西、内蒙古是我国碳排放强度最大的3个地区,宁夏、山东、福建等地的碳排放强度减小率均小于3.50%。利用散点分布关系说明碳排放强度影响因素的作用导向,经济总量、科技水平、居民消费水平的提高可以促进碳排放强度的降低。建议采取加快推进能源革命、强化科技创新和推广、逐步控制碳排放总量等碳减排政策。
We calculate the total amount of CO2 emissions in China' s 45 industry sectors and 30 provinces from 2000- 2012 to analyze the spatial characteristics by using IPCC reference method on the basis of statistical data from Chinese energy consumption. In 2012, the total amount of CO2 emission of China is 2,604,130,200 ton, and the average annual growth rate is 7.77%; the carbon emission intensity is 0.489ton per ten thousand Yuan GDP. The industries of electricity and heat production and supply are the largest source of carbon emissions, accounting for 34.96% of the total amount of carbon emissions of 2002, and this ratio has maintained at 34% ~37% until 2012. Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Hebei emitted the largest amount of carbon, accounting for 22.92% of the whole country. Ningxia, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have the largest carbon intensity. The rate of carbon intensity of Ningxia, Shandong and Fujian is less than 3.50%. Explaining the function of carbon intensity by using scatter distribution relationship shows that the growth of aggregate economy, technological level and the level of household consumption can contribute to reduce the strength of carbon emission. So we suggest accelerating the energy revolution, strengthening the innovation and promotion of science and technology to control the total amount of carbon emissions step by step.