中文摘要：

破坏性创新是一种便宜、方便、简单的产品技术创新,它的实现可以使企业技术实现有效增长,也可以利用其开发出的新产品创立新的企业。由于现有破坏性创新预测与实现方法无法有效地对破坏性技术进行搜索,在激烈的市场竞争中,对于处于成熟期的产品,有效的新产品开发变得极为困难。基于破坏性创新的发生条件,对破坏性创新的预测与产生方法进行了深入研究,为了考察破坏性技术的可预测性,研究技术进化路线上的破坏性创新节点及其破坏性创新的技术进化过程,建立了新市场破坏创新和低端破坏创新的详细的实现模型。所提出的方法既可用于新兴企业的新产品开发,也可用于市场主流企业的未来技术规划。

英文摘要：

Disruptive innovation（DI） is a kind of technology innovation which is cheaper,better,and more convenient.DI can create enterprise technology growth and establish entirely new enterprises through its newly developed products.Because existing Disruptive innovation roadmapping can＇t search for disruptive technologies effectively,to develop effective new products in the maturity period becomes quite difficult,in intensive of fierce market competition.DI roadmapping is in-depth studied based on the occurring conditions of DI.In order to investigate the predictability of disruptive technology,the disruptive bifurcation points on technological evolution path and the technological evolution process of DI are discussed.Finally,detailed process models of new-market DI and low-end DI are established.This methodology can be used for both developing new products of newly built enterprises and helping more senior enterprises to predict the future of technologies.