中文摘要：

针对二胎政策问题，本文收集全国人口普查数据，建立实时动态人口预测模型，通过差分方程的建模和分析，有效预测人口年龄变化趋势，验证了人口新政策的提出是时代发展的趋势。本文运用灰色系统理论分析法，通过关联分析和构建模型分析人口的性别比数据，从而进行人口相关的预测和决策。根据威布尔分布理论预测我国未来几十年的生育率，并进一步预测青年、少年、老年人口比重的变化趋势。最后以深圳市为例，通过“单独二胎”以及延迟退休年龄、城镇化发展等方案的实施，讨论调整计划生育政策后，未来深圳市人口规模、人口结构以及劳动力市场就业和养老方面的变化。

英文摘要：

To solve two-child policy problems,the paper collects decennial national census data,and build real-time dy-namic population predictive models,through modeling and analysis of differential equations to predict trends in population age,and verify the proposed new population policy is the development trend of the times. In this paper,using the theory of grey system analysis,through analysis and model analysis of the population sex ratio data association,which is related to population forecasting and decision making. According to the Weibull distribution theory predicts that China＇s growth over the next few decades rate and further to predict the change trend of proportion of the youth and elderly population. Finally , the paper takes Shenzhen City as an example,through the implementation of the“two child alone and delay retirement age, and the urbanization development program”,to discuss effect of family planning adjusting policy on population size,popu-lation structure,and labor market and employment and pensions changes.