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中文摘要：
针对武器装备故障间隔期预测的难点，提出了在灰色GM（1，1）模型的基础上建立灰色马尔可夫组合模型进行故障间隔期的预测。在分析典型电子装备故障率曲线的基础上，根据电子装备的故障特点，形成合理的建模背景，建立组合模型对装备故障间隔期进行预测。通过实例对预测值和真实值进行比较，表明在“少数据”、“贫信息”、“不确定”的情况下利用该组合模型预测故障间隔期的有效性，有效降低预测误差，提高预测精度。
英文摘要：
For the difficulty in predicting time between weapon failures, a grey Markov model is established based on grey model （ 1,1 ）. And a combined model for the prediction of the time between failures is established by analyzing a typical failure rate curve of electronic equipment and forming a reasonable modeling background according to the characteristics of electronic equipment faults. The predicted value is compared with the real value through an instance. The result shows that the combined model can be used effectively to predict the time between failures, reduce the prediction error and improve the predic- tion accuracy in the case of few data, poor information and uncertainty.
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