中文摘要：

防洪工程体系是由随机、模糊、未确知等众多不确定性因子组成的复杂系统,它至今仍是洪水灾害管理的主体,对该体系综合安全进行定量评价可为洪水灾害管理提供重要依据。模糊四元联系数是集对分析中同异反联系数的推广,它可更深入地分析系统中的各种不确定性。利用模糊四元联系数建立了防洪工程体系安全综合评价模型,用联系度可描述评价对象与评价标准之间的关系,其结果简便直观,能清晰地反应评价对象和评价标准间的动态联系。用该模型综合评价了实际防洪工程体系的安全程度,其结果与物元分析等方法所得结果一致。

英文摘要：

Watershed flood control engineering system is a complex system consisted of random, fuzzy, unascertainable uncertainties, which has taken up the main part of the flood disaster management. Comprehensive security evaluation of the system can provide an important basis for flood disaster management. Fuzzy four-element connection number is the promotion of the identical, discrepancy and contrary connection number in set pair analysis theory, which can be used to analyze the uncertainty of the system more deeply. In this paper, security evaluation model for flood control project is established by using fuzzy four-element connection number to describe the relationship between the evaluated object and the evaluation criterion. Its result is reasonable and easy-understanding, and reflects the dynamic relationship between the evaluated object and the evaluation criterion. The security of a watershed flood control engineering systems is evaluated by using the model. Its result is consistent with that of other methods such as matter element method.