正反馈交易是非理性投资者的一种交易策略,正反馈交易者通常依据证券前一期收益的高低决定其当期买卖行为。在正反馈交易存在的情况下,证券市场收益会表现出不同于有效市场假设所假定的特征,使证券市场表现出超常的波动性。本文建立了一个正反馈交易者和理性交易者参与的市场模型,分析了该市场中证券收益时间序列呈现出的正自相关性。
Positive feedback is a kind of trading strategy of irrational investors. Positive feedback traders' buying or selling behavior is decided by the stock price of the preceding period. In the presence of positive feedback trading, stock market returns will show characteristics which is different from the ones assumed in the efficient market hypothesis, and thus make the stock market fluctuate extraordinarily. This essay establishes a model with the participation of positive feedback trader and rational trader, and then makes further analysis.